There were 1,870 road deaths in the year ending June 2019 which is an increase compared to the previous year. This change is not statistically significant and long-term trends are broadly stable since 2010.
• There were 27,820 people killed or seriously injured (KSI) reported to the police in the year ending June 2019. This compares to 26,724 in the year ending June 2018 and is a statistically significant increase of 4%, at the 95% confidence level.
• There were 157,630 casualties of all severities in the year ending June 2019, down by 5% from the previous year. This change is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.
• The overall casualty rate per vehicle mile decreased by 5% over the same period.
• In the year ending June 2019, there were 1,870 reported road fatalities, a 4% increase from 1,794 in the previous year. This increase is not statistically significant and it is likely that the change is a result of natural variation.
• There were 27,820 killed or seriously injured casualties (KSIs) in reported road traffic accidents reported to the police, for the year ending June 2019. This compares to 26,724 in the year ending June 2018.
• The total number of casualties decreased by 5% to 157,630. This change is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.
• Motor vehicle traffic increased by 0.3% over the same twelve months. The fatality rate per billion vehicle miles increased by 4% to 5.6 and the overall casualty rate per billion vehicle miles decreased by 5% in the year ending June 2019 to 476.
Figures for January to June 2019 (RAS45002)
• Half yearly casualty figures are prone to fluctuation as they are sensitive to changes in in-year data validation processes in different forces, and are also likely to be affected by other factors such as weather changes. Therefore the changes in half yearly casualty figures in this release should be interpreted with caution and they may not be indicative of an ongoing trend.
• Between January and June 2019, 880 people were killed in reported road accidents. This is an increase of 11% compared to the same midyear of 2018 (795). This increase is statistically significant compared to the midyear of 2018, however, it is similar to the midyear of 2016 (868) and is in line with the long term average since 2010 which has shown variation around a flat line trend.
• There were 13,420 killed or seriously injured casualties and 61,260 slightly injured casualties during this midyear.
• Casualties of all severities decreased by 4% to 74,680 in comparison with the same midyear in 2018.
• Motor traffic levels increased by 0.1% compared to the same midyear in 2018. The fatality rate per billion vehicle miles increased by 11% to 5.4 and the overall casualty rate fell by 4% over the same period to 459.
Although there has been an increase in fatalities and decrease in total casualties in the year ending June 2019, these changes should be interpreted with caution. The increase in fatalities in the year ending June 2019 is likely to be natural variation around the longer term flat trend since 2010.
The increase in KSI’s between year ending June 2018 and year ending June 2019 is statistically significant, but until we can see the full year data with the severity adjustments in place, we cannot set this against the longer run flat trend since 2010. For more information on severity adjustments see the Reported Road Casualties in Great Britain 2018 publication: https://www.gov. uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-annual-report-2018
The decrease in total casualties is statistically significant. For more information on trends in total casualties see the underreporting of casualties section of the annual report: https://www. gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-annual-report-2018.
As discussed in the section on uncertainty, there are a number of police forces with data missing for periods of the year. This also creates uncertainty in these estimates. Once the missing data from these forces become available later in the year it is possible that there could be notable revisions to the year to date data for 2019.
Uncertainty in the provisional estimates.
Reported Road Casualties in Great Britain: provisional estimates year ending June 2019 - Page 7
Background to trends
• The provisional statistics are based on data supplied by police forces with some imputation to account for months that are either missing entirely or for which more records are expected later in the year. • Data on road types is unvalidated and therefore not ready to be included in the provisional estimates, this means it has not been possible to produce tables RAS45009 and RAS45010. • The midyear 2019 results are based on complete (January to June 2019) figures provided by 41 police authorities with partial data for two authorities. Data are incomplete for June 2019 for Police Scotland and Thames Valley Police. In addition, data for the MPS has only been provided by TfL in an aggregated form for all months from January to June 2019. • No single midyear figures should be taken in isolation as an indication of long-term trend, as there are seasonal fluctuations particularly in the smaller categories of road users. Adjustments are made to take account of missing data. Table RAS45011 provides a list of which police authorities are included in these figures. As described above, there is considerable uncertainty in the adjustments. • The figures in this release are based on information available to DfT as at 12 November 2019.
• Comparison of road accident reports with death registrations shows that very few, if any, road accident fatalities are not reported to the police. However, it has long been known that a considerable proportion of non-fatal casualties are not known to the police, as hospital, survey and compensation claims data all indicate a higher number of casualties than suggested by police accident data. • The data used as the basis for these statistics are therefore not a complete record of all personal injury road accidents, and this should be kept in mind when using and analysing the figures. However, police data on road accidents (STATS19), whilst not perfect, remain the most detailed, complete and reliable single source of information on road casualties covering the whole of Great Britain, in particular for monitoring trends over time. • Casualty rates are based on provisional casualty and traffic estimates and are subject to revision at the end of the year. • Provisional traffic estimates do not include pedal cycling estimates. We have attempted to adjust for this in the figures by adding in approximately 1% extra vehicle miles. This ratio is based on the relationship between all motor vehicle traffic and pedal cycle traffic for 2016 to 2018.
• The provisional in-year reported road casualty statistics web page provides further detail of the key findings presented in this statistical release. The tables are available at: https://www.gov.uk/ government/collections/road-accidents-and-safety-statistics. • A note on methodology can be found at: www.gov.uk/government/publications/road-accidentsand-safety-statistics-guidance • National Statistics are produced to high professional standards as set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. Further information on the National Statistics designation of this statistical release can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/road-accidents-andsafety-statistics-guidance/national-statistics-status-of-reported-road-casualties-statistics. • Details of Ministers and officials who receive pre-release access to these statistics up to 24 hours before release can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/roadaccident-and-safety-statistics-pre-release-access-list. • The latest annual road safety publication, Reported road casualties Great Britain, annual report: 2018, is available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-ingreat-britain-annual-report-2018. Background notes
Reported Road Casualties in Great Britain: provisional estimates year ending June 2019
The report with graphs and further information can be found here.